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Circle
2026-08-22 04:49:07

Artemis says Circle sell-off misses the bigger picture as CRCL drops 17%

Circle’s stock, CRCL, fell 17% on the day the Open Standard alliance was announced, with the market treating the move as a warning that a new coalition-backed stablecoin could challenge the dominance of USDC and Tether. Artemis disagrees. In its latest research, the firm argues that investors are pricing Circle as a rate-sensitive stablecoin issuer while overlooking a broader push to build a full-stack money platform for the internet. The report rests on several points. Artemis projects the stablecoin market can compound at 40% annually and exceed $1 trillion by 2030. It also argues that stablecoin competition is still governed by liquidity and network effects, which helps explain why Circle and Tether continue to control more than 80% of supply despite hundreds of tokens already in circulation. In that framework, Open Standard and OUSD are not automatically existential threats. Artemis also lays out a valuation case. Circle’s revenue run rate is put at about $2.8 billion, against a market capitalization of roughly $18 billion, or 6.7x sales, below the 14x multiple cited for payment networks. Under a scenario where stablecoin supply reaches $1 trillion, USDC captures 20% share, and rates sit at 2%, Artemis estimates Circle could generate $4 billion in interest income alone, with added upside from Circle Payments Network and Arc. That leads to a $50 billion valuation case for CRCL.

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Artemis says Circle sell-off misses the bigger picture as CRCL drops 17%